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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.