Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
